GBP/USD seasonality: average return by month (32 years)
Over 32 years, GBP/USD has been strongest on average in April and weakest in August. The table shows every month — average and median return, the middle half of outcomes and how often the month ended higher.
| Month | Average | Median | Middle 50 % | Years up | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.12 % | -0.45 % | -1.51 … 2.03 % | 45 % | 31 |
| February | -0.53 % | -0.15 % | -1.90 … 1.26 % | 47 % | 32 |
| March | -0.06 % | +0.02 % | -1.12 … 0.89 % | 53 % | 32 |
| April | +0.80 % | +1.21 % | -0.41 … 2.23 % | 63 % | 32 |
| May | -0.44 % | -0.68 % | -2.25 … 0.94 % | 34 % | 32 |
| June | +0.12 % | +0.48 % | -1.16 … 1.81 % | 63 % | 32 |
| July | +0.40 % | +0.26 % | -0.69 … 1.56 % | 59 % | 32 |
| August | -0.73 % | -1.02 % | -1.84 … 1.30 % | 34 % | 32 |
| September | +0.04 % | +0.29 % | -1.93 … 1.72 % | 53 % | 32 |
| October | +0.12 % | +0.02 % | -1.14 … 1.98 % | 50 % | 32 |
| November | -0.18 % | -0.49 % | -2.17 … 1.80 % | 39 % | 31 |
| December | +0.40 % | +0.81 % | -1.11 … 1.69 % | 58 % | 31 |
How to read it
Seasonality describes the past, not the future. With one value per year and month, a pattern rests on a few dozen observations at most — read it as context next to rates, positioning and the risk regime.
In the Drift Engine terminal you can choose any time window, see the weekday pattern and test seasonal strategies walk-forward in the backtest engine.