Forex seasonality: do currency pairs repeat calendar patterns?
Some currency pairs show recurring tendencies in certain weeks of the year. How to measure seasonality honestly, why the sample matters and how to test a seasonal strategy walk-forward.
What seasonality measures
Seasonality averages how a pair moved in the same calendar window across many years. Year-end flows, fiscal years and repatriation can create patterns.
Testing it without hindsight
The trap is choosing the pattern with knowledge of the result. A walk-forward test derives each year's patterns only from the previous years and then trades them. Drift Engine's backtest engine does exactly that and shows every year separately.
FAQ
How many years of data are needed?
More is better; with fewer than five to ten years a pattern can easily be noise. Drift Engine shows up to 32 years per pair.